Blog #26: AI - Just Tell Me What to Do
I frequently hear the question: "I know AI will be important in IBP/S&OP, but I don't know how to jump into it. Just tell me what to do."
That's fair. You're probably already using AI - tidying up emails, summarising documents, maybe even sense-checking a spreadsheet. But you suspect it could do way more for your actual planning work. The gap between 'dabbling' and 'doing it full-on' feels enormous.
But nobody's actually telling you where to start when it comes to really taking big chunks out of your Demand and Supply Planning work. Like - doing your demand forecasting for you.
That's telling.
The Paralysis is Real
You're not alone. I read a recent Gartner survey stating that only 23% of supply chain organisations have a formal AI strategy. The other 77%? - they're watching, waiting, wondering.
That waiting, it's not unfounded. According to some RAND Corporation research, more than 80% of AI projects fail - twice the rate of IT projects that don't involve AI. And Gartner also predicts that through 2026, organisations will abandon 60% of AI projects due to data that isn't ready for AI. That's a big failure rate.
So, we are caught in the no-man ‘s-land between "everyone's using AI" and "most AI projects fail." No wonder organisations are waiting, watching, and wondering.
Here's a Permission Slip
I don't believe you need a formal AI strategy to start. You also don't need to seek Exec approval for a multi-year transformation programme. And you don't need to upload your confidential data anywhere.
You need to start small. Learn fast. Build confidence.
McKinsey's advice? "Be curious. Don't wait to see how your competition uses it. There are no use cases out there that exactly fit your needs, so just start exploring."
Gartner puts it more bluntly: view AI adoption not as "do now or die" but as "learn fast or be left behind."
So let's learn. Not with a grand strategy. Not with a transformation programme. With three practical applications, you can try this week.
Three Safe Starting Points
Here's a key point: some of the most valuable, early AI applications in IBP/S&OP don't require you to upload a single confidential number. They're generic to your industry. They use AI to sharpen your thinking, not replace it.
Challenge your assumptions. Remember my blog about the Hubble Telescope? One wrong assumption cost $50 million to fix. AI is brilliant at poking holes in assumptions you didn't even know you were making. Ask it: "What assumptions should I be challenging about raw material availability in [your industry] over the next two quarters? Consider supplier concentration risk, geopolitical factors, and lead time variability." No confidential data required. Just better thinking.
Stress-test your Risks and Opportunities. Your R&O list represents your honest assessment of what could push you off plan. AI can play devil's advocate: "I work in [industry/country], and we're planning for seasonal peak. What risks do companies in this sector typically underestimate? What opportunities do they miss because they're focused on the obvious ones? Be specific and contrarian." Again - no proprietary data, just sharper risk thinking.
Build better scenarios. Scenario planning is where AI genuinely helps. Ask it to structure a scenario analysis for currency fluctuation, supply disruption, or demand volatility in your industry. Get it to identify the second and third-order effects that planning teams often miss. You're using AI's pattern recognition on generic industry dynamics - not your numbers.
The Pattern Here
Notice what these all have in common? They use AI to improve your thinking, not to generate your forecast. They keep your confidential data exactly where it belongs - with you.
This isn't AI doing your job. This is AI helping you do your job better.
And that's the right place to start.
What's Next
This is just the beginning. Once you've built confidence with these low-risk applications, there's more you can do with AI - and as global adoption continues its fast pace, more and more players will be refining it and finding the best uses. Next time, we'll go deeper on using AI as your devil's advocate - how to use it to systematically challenge your planning assumptions before reality does it for you.
But for now? Pick one. Try it this week. See what happens. Oh, and don't just do this by yourself - grab a small cross functional group of like-minded curious individuals to do it with you, even add the boss into the group and have some fun with it. Learn, experiment, and make it work for you.
This isn't about getting it perfect. It's about getting started.
That's it. That's what to do.
What's stopping you from trying AI on one of these three applications? And if you've already started - what worked?
Want to discuss how to start using AI sensibly in your IBP/S&OP process? Find me at www.planninglab.co.nz
#IBP #S&OP #ArtificialIntelligence #DemandPlanning #SupplyChain #BusinessPlanning