Annual budget season doesn't have to be a circus. If your S&OP or IBP is working, it should be a non-event. So why isn't it?

Still waiting for someone to post "AI replaced my demand planner, and this is exactly how you can do it too”

Me too. Maybe Santa knows?

Everyone's talking about AI in supply chain. Nobody's telling you where to actually start. So I wrote it down.

Merry Christmas!

If AI amplified your IBP process exactly as it runs today - would you like what you got?

Faster slides? Or faster decisions? Slicker theatre? Or genuine engagement?

AI doesn't fix dysfunction. It scales it.

That email you sent about not uploading confidential information to ChatGPT?

Your staff read it. Then uploaded their forecast spreadsheet anyway.

The answer isn't banning what you can't enforce.

Have a read👇

Confession: I do something most IBP facilitators would consider cheating.

Before every MBR, I book 15 minutes with the CEO to arm them with just enough information to look informed. I know they won’t read the pre-read, so I work with it, not fight it.

Last week: IBP theatre - meetings that run smoothly but change nothing.

This week: How to kill it.

The weapon? Silence. Twenty-seven seconds of it.

The most dangerous IBP meeting isn't the trainwreck.

It's the one that runs smoothly.

When meetings become performance instead of decision-making, IBP dies quietly, meeting by meeting.

Are you doing IBP or S&OP because it's ‘sophisticated’... or because it solves your problems?

If your team fights fires instead of looking ahead, more IBP / S&OP isn't the answer.

Often, simple beats sophisticated. Keep It Simple.

Your forecast is a promise - but it's going to be attacked. Are you ready for that?

Risks push you under the forecast line. Opportunities push you over it. Smart companies actively manage both and stay in balance.

Here's how to do it with one simple page.

Thirty-five years ago, Hubble launched into orbit. The planning was almost perfect.

Almost.

One wrong assumption cost $50 million to fix.

How much time do you spend on the assumptions behind your numbers?

Let me be clear, a CEO needs to be unreasonable, not evangelical. Here's the crucial difference and why understanding it matters for everyone in the planning process.  

"Right, we're going to fill up that warehouse and fix this DIFOT problem once and for all!"

I call that Evangelical Forecasting. But it’s Churches that are the places for faith. Businesses are for facts.

Short-term planning feels safe and manageable, but it's like navigating a boat at night with just a spotlight – you're essentially moving from crisis to crisis. Stop that!

Maybe you can predict snow in December (Note: I’m Southern Hemisphere), but if you can't deliver it, you're just creating expensive PowerPoint presentations about opportunities you can't capitalise on.

Conflict hits your business.

Within hours, executives are wading in about priorities, resources, and who gets what.

This is NOT the time to start making decisions.

The secret weapon in successful IBP/S&OP isn't better forecasting or fancier software.

It's storytelling. 📊➡️📝

The key to success is in your ability to tell the three essential business stories that drive decisions.

When customers place orders, they don't issue "get-out-of-jail-free" cards for incomplete deliveries. So why do we?

This article challenges some creative interpretations behind those comfortable 90% DIFOT scores while your customers look elsewhere.

Do you squirm in IBP/S&OP planning meetings when someone challenges the numbers?

Move their perspective. Show them this article: "Assumptions: From Theory to Practice”

Let’s challenge the conventional wisdom about "who owns inventory" and propose a controversial solution that could transform your approach to inventory management.

Hint: The answer might ruffle some feathers in your Supply Chain department...

Are your planning meetings just a battle over numbers? 🤔

The real magic of IBP happens between the numbers — in your assumptions.

Well-documented assumptions transform planning from mechanical exercises into strategic conversations.